If you own property, you need to hold on forever. It's best path to long-term wealth creation. And if you can't hold onto your property forever, then hold on long enough until commission rates come down. Don't sell your home if you don't have to! Property sellers go on strike!
Thankfully, the National Association Of Realtors, Keller Williams, and HomeServices of America were found guilty by a Missouri jury for price fixing. As a result, real estate commissions should finally come down in a significant way by 2025 as the buyers agent goes away.
On Friday, March 15, 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced a settlement with groups of homesellers, culminating in the end of landmark antitrust lawsuits through a payment of $418 million in damages and the elimination of rules on commissions. Hooray! Real estate commissions should be going lower.
According to TD Cowen Insights, real estate commissions are projected to decrease by 25% to 50%. If the standard rate was 6%, this translates to an average real estate commission rate of between 3% to 4.5%, which seems more reasonable.
Hence, if you are thinking about selling in a weak market with high mortgage rates, don't. Wait until mortgage rates come down and commission rates come down to make more and save more money.
Property Sellers: Be Wise And Hold On
The housing market is still strong. If you sell today and pay the big commissions, you will likely regret your choice years from now. Instead, I would try to hold on for as long as possible.
Rents have risen at least 20% from two years ago thanks to the surge in startup jobs as well as the general recovery in the economy. I raised my rent by 10% last year, and plan to raise my rent by another 5% this year. I feel bad raising the rent hence, I'm giving her a 5% discount. I'd rather have a great tenant who plans to stay for a while than a bad tenant or one that decides to move after only a year.
Real estate prices always follow what rental prices are doing in the long run. When you can immediately receive a 4+% net cash yield on a rental property while borrowing at 3% with the potential for capital appreciation, you buy real estate.
Renters will eventually get fed up with rising rents and also seek to buy, thereby pushing property prices up even further. If renters don't buy, then there is a further upward increase in rental prices which is good for landlords.
Even in an expensive city like San Francisco, owning a property is cheaper than renting provided you have capital for a 20-30% downpayment. Property sellers need to be cognizant of the power of inflation.
See: Buy Real Estate As Young As You Possibly Can
Online Real Estate Companies Haven't Helped Lower Commission Rates
Even after a tremendous shift towards real estate online with companies such as Zillow, Trulia (bought by Zillow in 2016), and Redfin, it is shocking that commission rates have stayed sticky at around 5% in the major markets.
5% is way too high of a commission to charge for a median property price of $650,000 here in San Francisco for example. Realtors complain that there is no inventory, yet refuse to lower their commissions to help increase transactions. As a result, I urge all homeowners to go on strike and not sell until commissions come down to a flat fee!
The cost to sell a house is just way too high. Property sellers need to fight back against the online real estate companies that have done very little to lower transaction costs. Only Redfin has really helped property sellers save.
The Benefits Of Never Selling Your Property
1) You learn to live within your means and appreciate what you have.
It always seems to be about more, more, more here in the US and in other developed countries. A 1,500 square foot track homes in the 1970's used to be the norm. Now we're talking 3,000+ McMansions with the same number of people in the family! Perhaps it's because Americans have gotten so much larger over the years we need more space? That's what the auto manufacturers tell us at least.
2) You put pressure on oligopoly pricing in the real estate market.
It is an absolute shame that Realtors will push their clients to buy one home over another just because of higher commissions. I know of Realtors who refuse to even visit a home, even if its perfect for their client because they won't make enough commissions! We need a flat real estate commission fee. 2% sounds about right.
3) You build incredible memories of happiness.
Think back to all the wonderful memories you had growing up as a kid. Chances are, if the median homeownership duration is 10 years, you no longer have that house. Now imagine if the house was still a part of the family as an adult 25 years later. Nostalgia is happiness.
I love going back to my grandparent's house every year for my entire life because I love remembering. I love seeing the pictures of when we were kids hanging in the hallway. I love seeing the trees we planted as youngsters grow and bear fruit. Owning a forever home is not a bad idea.
4) You get to live rent-free or mortgage-free for the rest of your life.
Sure there is normal maintenance expense and property taxes, but they are a pittance compared to the cost of ever rising rents in a naturally inflating environment. My parents are living debt free, and it is wonderful for them, and for me that I don't have to worry about them financially. Now that I'm retired, I fully appreciate my rental property income that helps sustain my lifestyle. I plan on accelerating the payoff of my rental property mortgages due to the increased appreciation for cash flow.
5) You help retirees increase their cash flow.
Many retirees rely on rental property income plus fixed income to survive. Unfortunately, fixed returns from CDs and dividend yields have declined. By keeping your property off the market, you prevent one more person from owning, thereby helping out our retired landlord friends live better lives by putting upward pressure on rents. Isn't it our duty to take care of our elders?
Besides, the value of rental income has gone way up because interest rates have come way down. Own rental properties!
6) You get to pass on your home to your loved ones.
My grandparents' vision was to always have their main house be in the family for us to visit, enjoy, and pass down to future generations forever. They may have been tempted at multiple times to sell for a huge profit, but I'm glad they didn't. I always enjoy going back home. It would be extremely strange to go back to a new house, or different house from the one I began visiting more than 30 years ago.
7) You get to benefit from a decline in real estate commission prices post NAR settlement
Thanks to the NAR settlement on March 15, 2024, residential real estate investors and owners will see a 1% to 4% immediate boost to the value of their holdings. Over time, residential real estate owners could see a 5% to 6% increase in their holdings as commission rates decline to 0%.
Below is a chart I put together highlighting the valuation boost for residential real estate investors and owners. The longer property owners go on strike and not sell, the greater the valuation boost to their properties.
The Cost Of Selling A Property Example
Take a look at how much it costs to sell a home for $1,850,000. We're talking over $117,000 just to sell. Why would you ever sell a home when you can rent it out and just earn cash flow? Property sellers need to really list out all the costs of selling a home before proceeding. It is very vomit-inducing.
Never create a taxable event if you don't have to. Be like a billionaire and borrow from your equity to fund anything you need.
Please Don't Sell Your Home If You Don't Have to
Treat your property as a home first, and as an investment second. Buying a home for lifestyle improvement is the way to go.
If you're buying a place just to make money, then perhaps you should reconsider your purchase. The median homeownership duration of 5.9 years is way too little to build any real wealth.
You've got to live somewhere. Reduce the stress that comes with buying, selling, moving, negotiating, and fixing. You'll wake up 10 years from now and be amazed at how quickly time flies. Hopefully you'll not only have built a good amount of equity, but also a great amount of wonderful memories.
If you're curious like I am about the latest value of your home, check Zillow.com. I check at least weekly because their values are updated 3X a week. Just be wary of their Zestimates and study the comparable sales.
My Conversation With Attorney Mark Ketchmark Who Busted The Real Estate Cartel
Here's my hour-long conversation with Mark Ketchmark, the lead attorney responsible for busting the real estate cartel and stopping their real estate collusion and price fixing ways. I think you'll find the conservation fascinating!
After paying 4.5% to sell my house, I promised never to sell another property until real estate commissions come down further. With this landmark ruling, I believe the buyers agent will eventually disappear, leading to at least another 1% decline in real estate commissions.
Invest In Real Estate Wisely
If you don't have the downpayment to buy a property, don't want to deal with the hassle of managing real estate, or don't want to tie up your liquidity in physical real estate, take a look at Fundrise, one of the largest real estate crowdsourcing companies today.
Real estate is a key component of a diversified portfolio. Real estate crowdsourcing allows you to be more flexible in your real estate investments by investing beyond just where you live for the best returns possible. For example, cap rates are around 3% in San Francisco and New York City, but over 8% in the Midwest if you're looking for strictly investing income returns.
Personally, I've invested $954,000 in private residential real estate in the Sunbelt region through firms like Fundrise. I think there is a multi-decade demographic shift toward lower-cost areas of the country and I want to take advantage. Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai as our outlooks are aligned.
Shop Around For A Better Mortgage Rate
Check the latest mortgage rates online through Credible. Credible has one of the largest networks of lenders that compete for your business. You can get free, no-obligation quotes in minutes. The more lenders compete for your business, the lower your rate.
Hold onto your property as long as possible! Inflation is up and to the right, and if you don't sell, you don't have to pay commissions, taxes, and fees. Check out real estate crowdsourcing opportunities to be more surgical with your money.
Great advice. Do NOT sell until those realtors lower their commissions to a flat rate or in line with the rest of the World. 5-6% >$700,000$ on a home is assinine for what really? MLS listing, a few adverts, “a website” and post and pray?! Then the usual, race to the bottom hints of price reductions “adjustments” or “new price” nonsense. GO on strike. No houses listed and don’t be afraid to pull of market if its filled with looky loos and/ or bargain hunters-low ballers.
Hi Financial Sumarai,
I stumbled upon your website because of a dilemma that I am currently facing on whether to sell my condo in SF or to rent it.
To rent it out, I need to pay back the Downpayment Assistant Loan from the City of SF which is 50k plus a shared appreciation of about 24k (14% appreciation on an appraised value of 530k).
I do not have that much cash, so I thought about getting a HELOC or refinance with a cash out.
In the process of shopping around, I was turned down because of the nature of the property being in a mixed use building. Apparently not many banks will finance such condominium property. My condo is in the Mission district in SF.
Since it is hard for me to refinance in order to rent the property, I thought of selling it instead. It was appraised for 475k in 2014. Its value has probably gone up a little. I thought if I sell, I can use the profit to buy a bigger place somewhere else in the Bay Area.
However, I feel that I will have regrets later in selling the condo.
What should I do to better evaluate my options that makes the most financial sense?
Thank you.
We are close to the top of the market. I would NOT take out a HELOC or do a cash out refinance.
Be happy with what you have, and save up the $74,000 the old fashion way through basic income.
Do your best to buy, hold, rent out, buy hold, for as long as possible.
First off, great website! The topics you write about are 100% focused on real world scenarios and help non-finance folks like myself get educated.
This weekend, I was reading your blog posts tagged under “real estate”. I have a better perspective on when to sell vs. when to hold/rent.
Before reading your blog posts, I was 100% set on selling my loft to upgrade to a single family home; now I am not so sure. The listing agent we are using is bringing the stager to my place tomorrow and I would love to get your thoughts on what I should do. Here is some background:
Where: Soma (SF)
When: Purchased loft in 2009
Purchase price: $449k
Realtor expects: $800-1.2M
Family Income: $300k/yr
A few thoughts on why I am considering selling:
1. Wife and I want a single family home (kids, dogs)
2. We have $150k of savings which unfortunately is not enough money to qualify for a 2nd mortgage (down payment for a single family home + reserves) — San Francisco is darn expensive!
Questions for you:
1. Should we sell?
2. If we do sell, should we buy immediately or should we rent and wait for more single family home inventory?
3. What options am I not considering? (eg. should I keep my loft for another 5 years while I save for a 2nd mortgage (down payment + reserves) for the single family house)
The logic in my head has been:
– There is a good amount of equity in my current loft (100% appreciation in 6 years seems out of the norm)
– Single family homes in lesser desired parts of San Francisco are still “reasonable” – think bayview & portola
– If I sell, will I regret selling (your blog has taught me that SF property will also increase in value)
– If I do keep my place and save for a 2nd place- will I be priced out of all SF single family homes in 5 years?
– I would not move back into my loft after I move out – it would be a 100% rental property… mortgage + HOA is $3,200 and we estimate being able to rent it for $4000 at current rates
Have you read: The Best Place To Buy In San Francisco Today? I’d buy in Golden Gate Heights if you are to buy a SFH.
If you sell, you pay a 5% commission. I think that is a disgustingly high amount on property over $500,000. I will never sell so long as commission rates are that high, as that is an instant -5% hit in value.
San Francisco is one of the cheapest international cities in the world with strong income opportunity. I don’t plan to sell b/c I’ve been everywhere, and SF really is cheap for the income one is able to generate.
I do believe you will greatly enjoy living in a SFH though. You will never lose if you sell a winner.
I agree- golden gate heights is a great value.
Would you recommend sell and then immediately buy in golden gate heights? Would you recommend renting to wait for more inventory/potential market correction?
I particularly like point number three. We’re military, so we have to move a lot, but I’m very thankful that I can still see my parents in the home I grew up in and I remember fondly the homes of my grandparents. I think sometimes people fail to recognize this, so it is great that you reminded us all!
Bought our condo last summer. Refinanced w/ 15 year loan in March and expect to die here :). I’ve moved at least 10 times in my adult life into apartments, condos and homes. I’m exhausted:)
10 moves is a lot! I’m happy you’ve finally found a place to settle!
No, I haven’t bought my home yet, let’s owners not go on strike.
More, more, more mentality that’s why! Not being satisfied.
I think that one, real estate agents don’t want to tell people that the owners are selling their homes to in order to go back to being renters because that makes it look like the economy is still down, and real estate agents don’t make money that way.
I hope we will never have to go back to renting, but it really has nothing to do with the mortgage tax deduction (right now, it’s about the same as the standard deduction, so our only “extra” are charitable donations and sales tax). It has much more to do with being able to do with my home what I want. I have dogs. I have had a Pit mix and almost certainly will again. I don’t want someone to be able to tell me I can’t have the dog I want. We have two dogs and foster a third- I don’t want limits on how many pets I can have (besides the local government’s laws to prevent hoarding). I want to be able to paint walls, tear out carpets, etc, all without having to get someone else’s approval. I like that my house is mine.
We have been in our current house a little over 7 years. We are considering moving sometime in the next 5. A lot will depend on when (and at what age) a child comes into our lives, and if we decide to move for better public schools or go with private.
The Seattle area, where I live, has not been hit as hard as some. But I do think the Bay Area can’t really be compared to the rest of the country. It’s local economy and space restrictions don’t translate well to most of the rest of the country.
Being able to do WHATEVER one wants really is great. I agree. When I got the keys to my first property, I was overcome with JOY! It’s an indescribable feeling… maybe similar to finally being able to retire and do anything you want!
I agree, but I think that when property virgins by, they tend to buy with the short-term in mind. When we buy next year, we’re looking for a house that can be renovated and expanded, and one that has a big chunk of land just in case we need to add a carriage house to take care of family. Frankly, I couldn’t imagine living in just one place my whole life, but it’s good to be prepared anyway.
Good plan Daisy! Thanks for joining me in the revolution to squash commission rates, support the rental market, and build wealth for generations to come!
Still trying to find your post about the 5/1 ARM vs. a 30 Year Fixed mortgage?
I was hoping you were going to prove my math wrong but instead you took the post down?
Here you go: https://www.financialsamurai.com/2012/05/02/30-year-fixed-mortgage-loan-vs-adjustable-rate-mortgage-arm-the-choice-is-obvious/
Your math is way too wrong to spend time fixing. Seriously. Re-read your comment. It makes no sense. Thanks.
5.5% was my assumed NEW rate when the ARM resets in 5 years.
My math DOES work.
You are hinging everything on rates never going up – but they have NO room to move down.
I’ll take the lock on three decades of historically low financing.
Then, assuming real returns are ever positive again due to a growing economy, I can laugh all the way to the bank.
Guess time will tell. I’ve been right for the past 10 years of owning, so I would have to be wrong for 10 years to just break even.
For the next 5 years, I’ll be paying 2.625% on my 5/1 ARM. I seriously doubt my rate will go up by 2.875%. But if so, my asset will be that much higher as it inflates.
Wow Sam, you’re really doing your homework. I occasionally go to open houses just because I’d like to buy at some point (not ready yet), but I kind of look forward to doing something as intense as you (but on the buying side). With so much $$ on the line, it makes sense to prepare for a few months before making a decision so that no mistake is made. I don’t know the stats, but I think some people get into buying a house and then within the first five they check out they probably settle on a place. Maybe this is why a lot of people make mistakes?
Maybe. I spend a lot of time doing researching and running scenario analysis.
My husband inherited this house from my mother-in-law when she passed away 7 years ago. However, the kids are growing and we know we need a bigger space for them so we decided to get our own house. At first, we wanted to sell this house so that we will not be paying much for the mortgage. After several discussions, we decided to keep the house and put it on the rent market. The rental money will definitely be a welcome addition to our savings and investment. Plus the fact that we are not giving up an inheritance and a property asset, I am sure my in-laws will be glad about the news.
Donno if Portland is considered a big city. Probably for Oregon yes!
Good thought on not buying until you find your forever home. If everybody thought that way, I am SURE there wouldn’t have been such a housing calamity!
Santa Barbara, CA
I’ve got through several scenarios and I think buying is a good option at this point. That said, the chances of that happening in the next 57 days aren’t very high. I’ll probably settle for the first rental that looks decent and try to negotiate a short lease.
Any tips for someone in my situation?
Sure.
Read: How To Get An Apartment In A Hot Rental Market
Point of view from a landlord (me).
Thanks Sam.
I’ll need to tread carefully around the lease length issue since I would continue to look to buy.
Sam, I agree with this post with one exception.
One more person needs to sell their house… to me!
My landlord recently gave me a 60 day to vacate notice this past weekend and I need to find a new place to move, fast. Rental prices are high. Sales prices are high. Inventory is low. It looks like the end of the real estate slump in my area.
Zach, which is your area?
You plan to rent or buy?
This post is especially interesting to me as I have a home and pay rent (we are renting out our house and renting an apartment to save money). Right now I pay just south of $800/month for my apartment. For the house, we negotiated with the mortgage company and we are going to pay about $800 now. It used to be a little over $1000 a month. Our current renters for the house pay about $1150 a month so we are making close to $350 a month just in the overage! With how rental prices are creeping up everywhere these days, we are thinking of increasing the rent to our tenants when their lease is up. This is hard though because they are really nice people. it is really hard to argue with current market trends, though.I live near Atlanta , BTW
That is quite an interesting situation. I would say either raise the rent (give them a good heads up), or just move back in and take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction.
We recently thought about selling our home, but decided that our mortgage payment is pretty low and we really didn’t need a bigger house yet. So we’re just going to stockpile as much money as possible and throw a big down payment on a new home with the time comes.
In my part of Chicago rents have been stable for the past 3-5 years. Oversized one-bedrooms (700-900sq. ft) run in the $850-900/month range. Purchasing a similar property would run $130-200k, with ~2% property tax per year and a typical $200 month assessment. If you include a modest real estate fee, the payback period for the lower priced homes is around 10-12 years. There is NO payback period for the higher priced homes in my area.
Travel a few miles in another direction and you will find a completely different situation. Real estate is hyper-local, and whether or not renting / buying is more profitable has to be assessed on a case by case basis.
I’ve always marveled at how cheap Chicago is! But then, I am reminded about the 6 months of weather.
Is the rental stock as nice as the ownership stock? In SF, due to rent control, a lot of rentals here are run down. We also have a huge stock of classic Victorians and Edwardians.
The new construction in the city is outrageous eg $4,500 for a 2/1.5 apartment.
Whether you sell in an up or down market, you are trading dollars unless you either get out of owning entirely or move to a lower cost area. San Francisco is somewhat unique in that it recovered faster and sooner than other areas of the country. There are places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and parts of Florida that are still soft.
I have no intention of selling until it becomes necessary to move to a single level place. I may even rent out my place when we move because it will be paid off and the rental market is strong.
If I was younger, I would buy 10 LV, Phoenix, and Miami homes.
Wait a second, you are not that old! I wonder what the rental market is in those states? I would avoid any non local rentals because you have to depend on others to manage it.
I don’t have the energy to focus on my online work + managing rentals. Also, the net operating income even after buying 10, $150,000 rentals for $1.5 million for example, isn’t enough.
10 rentals to generate perhaps $30,000 NOI isn’t worth it to me at my stage.
I only plan to work 20 hours a week! (Post coming up!)
“Treat your property as a home first, and as an investment second.” We’ve always had this mentality. We don’t plan on going anywhere for at least another 7 years, so we’re investing a little time and energy into fixing up our home the way we want it to live in it, and are not worried about being break-even or slightly underwater.
It’s funny that the real estate agents you talk to have no real opinion, other than what brings them money. I guess it’s to be expected when they are paid to sell.
I like the idea of keeping a home in the family for a long period of time. Though we’ll probably outgrow our current home, we want our next home to be our final house that we live in. We may purchase rentals, but we only want to move once more, and then stick our flag in the ground and stay there.
We are planning on holding on to this property for a long time. The plan is to save up for a down payment for a new house, refinance this house whenever we’re actually able to, and once its too small for our family (5 years tops) turn it into a rental property and move to a house that will fit our family.
I don’t ever plan to sell the home we are buying. Just the costs involved in selling a property make it worth renting out rather than selling, unless you’re really over a barrel.
I have been in my house for 12 years. I paid off my mortgage 1-1/2 years ago. I promise you I will never, EVER sell my house…unless a completely great, unexpected opportunity comes along (you want to trade me your beach house in Hawaii straight across).
Right on! I wish my house in Hawaii was right on the beach! It does have a view of the beach though :)
I don’t think real estate will ever switch to a flat fee basis but it would help buyers out tremendously if the real estate agent had the buyer’s best interest in mind. There are some good agents out there who do but honestly most are focused on commission.
It needs to come from lowering the transaction cost for the SELLERS first. Lower transaction costs leads to more property, which helps buyers’ selection. 80% of all internet found is online anyway, which makes the 5% commission even more ridiculous.
Man, you’re speaking my language here. My wife and I are actually taking the opposite advice though – but essentially trading property in Boston for property around NYC. We live here now and aren’t looking to move any time soon, so having our rental properties closer to home is big. Transaction costs suck, but we’ve minimized those through a few connections in the business. But on the other side of things – the buying side – you’re right about the lack of inventory and the characteristics of the sellers. It’s really nuts.
An expensive trade no?
Thoughts of just renting out your house given rents are rising nationwide I’m reading?