Happy 2019 everyone! This is the Financial Samurai 2019 economic outlook and personal goals.
With my 2018 finishing with 3.8 4.0 out of 5.0 stars, I've thought long and hard about how I can make 2019 better. I've found a solution.
My 2019 theme is: live the good life. If you live the good life, how can life not be better?
Some people like to tighten their belts during economic uncertainty. I used to be one of those people in 2008-2009. But after a raging bull market since 2009, I feel it's OK for my family to start spending more on life instead of letting our investments piss away our wealth.
Besides, if panic increases, there will be lots of things going on sale. Let's first discuss my outlook for 2019 and then I'll go over my goals.
Financial Samurai 2019 Outlook
Things are uncertain, to say the least. From policy errors by the Federal Reserve to trade wars by Trump to a drastic slowdown in corporate earnings growth (20%+ down to ~7%), we are facing many headwinds in 2019. The funny thing is, I'm editing this in 2025 and the S&P 500 and the housing market did well 5+ years later.
Despite the 4Q2018 sell-off in the stock market, JP still wants to raise rates another two times in 2019 to keep inflation at 2%. There's an old saying on Wall Street: don't fight the Fed. You will get run over.
If the housing market is weakening, the stock market is correcting, and if the labor market softens given companies are now 20% less valuable on average, it's baffling why the Fed thinks inflation will accelerate in 2019.
The good news is that 4Q2018 has baked in a lot of the negatives. Valuations are now at around historical averages and expectations have been reset.
And unless JP is a complete idiot for going to Princeton and Georgetown, he will probably adjust his interest rate stance if we enter full bear market territory. And let's put things in perspective, a -6.4% year for the S&P 500 is not that bad.
The question everybody needs to ask themselves is whether the equity risk premium is worth taking. If you can get a 2.45% risk-free rate of return (now 1.75% in 2020, and 1.3% in 2021) or pay down more expensive debt (mortgage, student loans, credit cards), is it worth taking risk in equities to maybe make a potentially greater return?
My answer is no. Give me a 2.45% – 5% guaranteed return any day while the world recalibrates. The stress of trying to make perhaps a 10% return in the stock market is simply not worth the premium since there's probably an equal chance stocks will go down. The peace of mind of a risk-free return should not be under-appreciated, especially if you have more certain ways to make money.
Of course, there are no guarantees. Therefore, my plan is to keep my existing public investments just the way they are (45%/55% stocks/bonds) and use my monthly cash flow to pay down debt and invest in a 70%/30% ratio. At the very minimum, my Solo 401(k), SEP IRA, and son's 529 plan will all be maxed out. If the S&P 500 gets back to 2,800+, I will be aggressively selling down more stocks.
I'm in the “low interest rates for life” camp. Once again, I don't see the 10-year bond yield finishing over 3% in 2019. This is a risky call since the 10-year bond yield is not far away at 2.75%, and reached as high as 3.2% in 2018. But this call simply means the yield curve will continue to flatten as the Fed stubbornly continues to raise rates, leading to a recession by 2020.
Given it takes 2-5 years for real estate cycles to play out, I see further weakness all year in expensive coastal city real estate markets like San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, LA, San Diego, Boston, New York, and Washington DC. Cities with unlimited land for expansion like Las Vegas, Dallas, and Denver are likely going to continue weakening as inventory surges higher. The heartland of America will not be immune to a real estate slowdown unfortunately.
The positive in real estate is that mortgage rates will continue to stay low. With rising inventory and low interest rates, affordability will increase and bring in new buyers. There might even be a refinancing boom again. I don't see a real estate crash like the stock market crash of 4Q2018. Instead, we'll see a soft landing as prices slowly decline by another 5% – 10%.
Finally, I predict more people than ever will generate new income sources beyond their day job. Whether it is starting a website or investing in assets that are countercyclical to the stock market, people will no longer take their job security for granted.
Only the misinformed believe a large correction in stocks has no bearing on future corporate employment decisions. You must always be forward-thinking when it comes to investing.
Buckle down folks! If you do not get your finances right in 2019, you might end up losing years worth of time and effort. 2019 is not the time to be a hero. Instead, 2019 is the year to bullet proof your finances by earning more based on what you can control.
Financial Samurai 2019 Goals
1) No gray hairs, no chronic pain. I've learned over the years that our body reveals our true stress level no matter what we do or what we say. My goal is to keep things like sciatica, lower back pain, TMJ, grey hairs, wrinkles, hair loss, migraines, and excessive weight gain at bay in order to live longer and feel healthier. Stress is the silent killer of our generation.
Specific activities for the year include: exercising and stretching 3X a week, taking walks with my son 5X a week, incorporating 15 minutes of meditation 3X a week, and eliminating sugary drinks. I will continue to maintain a body weight of between 165 – 170 lbs at 5′ 10″.
2) Remain unemployed until September. My son turns two in April, and I plan to remain a stay at home dad at least until then. Although, I've given myself a green light to find full-time work after two years, my ultimate goal is to remain a stay at home dad until he is eligible for preschool in September if he is mature enough to attend. If he is not, then my goal is to remain a SAHD until September 2020 for 3 years, 9 months total.
In order to stay unemployed, I need to make sure my risk exposure is appropriate so I don't stress out about losing too much money, get out of the house at least two hours a day for some me time, and attend more social functions. Activities include tennis, softball, startup gatherings, Napa/Lake Tahoe getaways, and our first family trip to Hawaii. Of course, if the bull market continues, then staying unemployed will be relatively easy.
3) Hire help for the business. After almost 10 years of running Financial Samurai with only my wife, it's time to get some help with writing. I'll be slowly looking for someone who is WordPress savvy, trustworthy, intelligent, reliable, dedicated, believes in my five core principles, enjoys writing and wants to earn some steady side hustle income. The fit has to be fantastic, otherwise, I'll just continue to operate the site as usual.
I realize many sites my size or smaller have 1-4 people, on average, working to write content and handle some of the business elements. Now that I've discovered how great it is to hire help around the house, it's only logical to hire help for our business.
4) Focus on profits. Since I'm going to hire help for the business, I want to get a return on my investment. To not get an ROI on my capital expenditure would make me a foolish businessman.
I or my new hire will write more review posts, develop more affiliate partnerships, build my blog marketing business, update my severance negotiation book, and maybe create a new Financial Samurai product. I'll still publish my usual style posts 2-3X a week. There will just be more content all around as there is no limit to how many posts and pages a website can publish.
It's going to feel great to finally start seriously focusing on monetizing Financial Samurai after 10 years. I already get the occasional flak from readers who criticize my work and don't pay me a cent. So I now plan to unabashedly take full advantage of my platform to take care of my family, especially if the economy softens.
5) Grow the Financial Samurai Forum. For four years, I was a forum junkie in college. It was one of the best ways I learned about investing and finance. But in order for a forum to grow, it needs to be nurtured. Therefore, I plan to continue posting and corresponding at least 5X a week on the forum to build the FS community.
I have a 5-year plan to grow the Financial Samurai Forum into one of the best financial forums on the web. Specifically, I want to double its traffic in 2019. The forum is geared towards people who fundamentally believe that making more money is a better way to grow wealth than mainly through saving. I want to build a community that is open-minded and always curious about new ways to get better. I’m aiming for thought diversity not groupthink.
6) Help my boy reach the following milestones by year-end. Being a full-time parent is an incredibly rewarding job because you get to teach and witness progress on a daily basis. I've discovered that through Financial Samurai, foster youth mentoring, and coaching high school tennis that I enjoy being an educator. Below are some specific goals we are looking to help him develop by 2 years 9 months.
Play and Social Skills
- Sit comfortably in circle time for more than 10 minutes
- Enjoy playing with the piano, guitar, and drums
- Play with toys without mouthing them
- Screw and unscrew jar lids and turn door handles
- Build towers of more than 6 blocks
- Copy a circle with pencil or crayon
- Show affection for friends without prompting
- Be away from parents with supportive and familiar people for 4 hours or more to prepare for pre-school
Coordination
- Walk down stairs unassisted
- Maintain balance while catching a ball or when gently bumped by peers
- Throw and attempt to catch ball without losing balance
- Walk and maintain balance over uneven surfaces
- Use both hands equally to play and explore toys
- Learn to pedal a tricycle
Daily Activities
- Able to self-calm in car rides when not tired or hungry
- Tolerate diaper changes without crying or whining
- Has an established sleep schedule of 10 hours or more a night and 1-2 hours of nap time after lunch at least 5X a week
- Able to self-calm to fall asleep
- Able to tolerate and stay calm during dental visits
- Able to brush his teeth without whining or crying 3X a day
- Is potty trained before preschool starts in September
- Dresses and undresses self by figuring out buttons, zippers, and straps
Communication
- Is able to consistently use 3-4 word phrases e.g. “I am hungry,” “The garage door is white,” “Walk with daddy,” “Financial Samurai is the best!”
- Uses “in” and “on”
- At least 75% of speech is understood by any caregiver
- Follows 2-step unrelated directions, e.g. “give me the ball and go get your coat”
- Understands “mine” and “yours”
- Says words like “I,” “me,” “we,” and “you” and some plurals (cars, dogs, cats)
- Understands half of what we communicate to him in English, in Mandarin
The next 12 months is going to be a huge challenge due to his growing temper tantrums. Another challenge is staying healthy since we're all getting sick more often now as he's exposed to other kids. Luckily, my wife and I haven't been sick at the same time yet. We'll finally introduce some screen time to him after his second birthday, which should help keep him occupied during trips.
7) Spend $1,500 more a month on life. We have frugality disease. We are spending less today than we were in our late 20s, despite having a much higher income and net worth. Our estate planning lawyer sessions really made us realize we will likely die with too much.
I've been slowly spending more money on things that may improve our lives. For example, the $4,000 large jet tub I bought in 2014 has come in handy for family bath time now. The $15,000 I spent on the outdoor hot tub in 1H2017 was one of the best purchases ever. Further, I have no regrets paying $58,000 cash for a used family car in December 2016 either. Baby steps on the road to lifestyle inflation!
We will allocate the extra $1,500 in spending towards more babysitting help, more massages, bi-monthly house cleaning, and quarterly gardening. We will purchase at least economy plus tickets for all our parents to come visit. Further, if we take our first flight as a family, we will purchase economy plus tickets as well.
We are also going to regularly give to two charities all year. One will be to a center for foster kids and abused youth. Another will be for children with visual impairments. I also like supporting public park tennis initiatives.
Related: Practice Taking Profits To Pay For A Better Life
8) Pay off $200,000 of mortgage debt. Paying off my SF rental condo in 2015 felt wonderful. I don't care whether it goes up or down in value because I truly plan to own it forever. Selling my SF rental house and paying off a $815,000 mortgage in the process also felt terrific. No matter how much more I could have made investing in risk assets, I've never regretted paying off debt.
Our ultimate goal is to be debt free by 2022, when our boy is ready for kindergarten. Paying down $200,000 a year in extra mortgage debt will accomplish this goal. In a bear market, it feels great to earn a guaranteed return. But it's also important to have lots of liquidity to take advantage of opportunities as well.
9) Aggressively search for a larger house. I dodged a canon in 2018 by not buying a larger house for more money. I wrote two offers for San Francisco homes that both got rejected. I was seriously going to try and buy this one expensive SF house in a great neighborhood, but by the time I was going to put in an offer, they had accepted another offer on November 1 for asking. If I had bought the house I'd be feeling nervous today since the stock market corrected by 20% soon after. It's not unreasonable to assume to house is now worth $200,000 (4.5%) less today.
Meanwhile, the seller of the house in Honolulu I've been eyeing since 2016 gave up trying to find a buyer in 4Q2018 and rented out the house from Oct – January to short-term tenants. The original asking price was $4.7M in 2016. Today, I think there's a good chance they will accept $3.5M – $3.7M because they finally dropped the ask down to $3.98M.
I want a bigger house in SF so my parents, in-laws and sister can come visit for a longer period of time. One more bathroom and 500 sqft more of space would be ideal. However, if I move to Honolulu, I won't need a bigger house since my parents have their own house.
I anticipate there will be many more deals in 2019 given inventory will likely be up 50% – 150% in San Francisco and Honolulu. I suspect the IPOs of Uber, Lyft and others will put a -10% floor on SF prices.
10) Be a voice for at least 50% of the population. Due to the high cost of living, there are very few personal finance bloggers who live in an expensive coastal city. This makes rational sense, especially if you are a FIRE blogger. But a full 50% of the national population lives in expensive coastal cities and other big cities around the country that face slightly different challenges. Same for many big city residents around the world e.g. London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai, etc. Therefore, I have an opportunity to establish Financial Samurai as a go-to resource for big-city audiences.
It's going to be fun tackling topics such as: private grade school tuition, the feasibility of retiring early with a family in a HCOL area, forsaking wealth and prestige, the dangers of creating multi-generational wealth, featuring diverse cultural backgrounds, and more. My goal is to convince big media to provide a more diverse perspective on financial independence since not everybody can or wants to move to a low cost area of the country.
11) Be more forgiving of myself. No matter what project I undertake, I always run through the finish line. Financial Samurai's finish line is July 1, 2019 after I made a promise in 2009 to publish 3X a week for 10 years. After that, who knows the future.
The funny thing about this finish line is that it is completely arbitrary. There is absolutely no need to put pressure on myself to produce so much content, especially if I'm having a rough week or sick. Financial Samurai surpassed my expectations long ago. Therefore, I'm going to give myself four weeks where I'll just publish one post plus I'll take it easy the entire month of June, when traffic is slowest.
By giving myself a break, I hope to sleep in more regularly until 6am. For the majority of 2018, I was naturally waking up by 5am after going to bed around 11pm. But during 4Q2018 and after daylight savings, I started naturally waking up as early as 3:30am to get my writing done before my wife and son woke. This crazy early time must have been due to increased anxiety from the stock market collapse.
With more sleep and less stress, I hope to improve my overall mental health and happiness. My desire to constantly grind stems from mistakes made in high school, plenty more rejections as an adult, and an indoctrination since I was a kid that I need to try harder as a minority to get ahead in America. I know I have a really good thing going now, so I don’t want to take my good fortune for granted.
12) Celebrate big and small wins. To make the hustle more worthwhile, we will celebrate all our achievements as parents, writers, and entrepreneurs. A celebration can be as small as opening a nice bottle of wine. These celebrations will also help us fulfill our goal of spending more.
Every evening I will highlight something specific I appreciate about my wife so she always feels recognized and loved. She is an incredible full-time mom who also launched the FS Forum, finalized our revocable living trust, registered How To Engineer Your Layoff and Cutie Baby with the Library Of Congress, and is responsible for all ongoing business accounting. It's clear I haven't done a good enough job appreciating her efforts over the years, which is why I'm committed to do more for her in 2019 and beyond.
Steady As She Goes
If we can grow our net worth by just 5%, I'll be happy. I'm willing to forego upside investment potential to help ensure our net worth goes up in 2019. Despite our public investments accounting for only about 30% of our net worth, it gave me the most stress in 2018. This will change.
I still have hope the Fed will slow down its rate hikes. If they do, I'm confident the economy will chug along at 2% – 2.5% GDP growth and not enter into a recession. However, there are no exciting positive catalysts on the horizon except for a trade agreement with China by end of 1Q. 2019 will likely be another volatile year.
The last two years working on FS and being a SAHD has worn me out. Given we save most of our after-tax business income by living off our passive income, I'm excited to live it up more in 2019 and use my “vacation credits” to take it easier.
If you have any tips on how to smartly inflate your lifestyle without feeling guilty, I'd love to hear them. I also want to learn how to inhale the roses more often without feeling the need to always be productive.
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Related post: Financial Samurai 2021 Outlook For Stocks And Real Estate
First, keep up the good work!
I realize I am very late to this discussion. A friend of mine just sent this post to me.
First, the process of setting goals sets you apart from most people, and is vital to your success.
And please, keep helping people who live in high cost areas. I enjoy reading your posts. My entire family lives in high cost areas. We have adapted and thrived, but it is never easy.
And just a thought about your property. I am looking hard at selling a property and reinvesting in a Delaware Statutory Trust (DST). It is not a conventional solution, and there are some downsides to this kind of legal structure. However, it is worth a look. Just a thought.
Everyone wants to make too much money too soon. They do stupid things and lose it.
A secure 3 million is better than 5 million lost in a crash.
Seriously—how much money do you need? IMO there are far more nourishing goals in life than how much money you have in the bank. Money is just a means to an end and the real test is how rich would you be if all the money went away.
I don’t respect net worth, I respect how you got it. What did you do to get it? What have you added to the world and to culture in getting it?
Hi, my first day reading your stuff. I read 14 articles so far. I’m not sure if this is an answer to a question of yours or to my impression of you, so bear with me. You want to feel less guilty about slowing down, smelling the roses and allowing yourself to enjoy life!? You might try this. Go somewhere beautiful, wonderful, enjoyable for a days vacation with your wife and child. Maybe a zoo, or a National Park, when I lived near San Francisco I loved visiting John Muir National and Giant Sequoia National Park next to Yosemite. But instead of taking your time, seeing all the beauty, filling your lungs with relaxing fresh air, enjoying a nice walk with your wife and pointing out the many wonders of nature to your son, rush thru whatever place you go, take 1000 of photos but don’t spend enough time just soaking in the view. You will return home more and more annoyed at your day. Trust me. You will start thinking of the beautiful views, even more, when you look thru a 1000 photos of it, and regret not just sitting down for a minute or two soaking it really in, smelling the roses as they say. You will think of your child and regret not sharing in the wonder of all the new things your child saw, you will begin to hate yourself, the lost day, the lost opportunity, of not grabbing a hold of nature with your child, so much could have been enjoyed so much more but you were focused on getting those photos. And then your wife will look at you, sad you missed out taking nature really in because you rushed around taking photos. Then your wife will get really annoyed with you, because she had to keep rushing to keep up with you, and so all those times she just wanted to take in the view just for a minute more she couldn’t since she always had to catch up to you, speedy Gonzalez (from bugs bunny cartoons, ) finally she will feel more stressed now then before you left home for your enjoyable day out (not.)
By now you must get what I’m getting at. And actually as fast as you are, a half day wasted like that will do (maybe after it will be better if you really go somewhere, and take your time enjoying yourself, maybe after a snack or a slow lunch, otherwise your wife may disown you?) But, you will never forget the experience, the wasted opportunity, the wasted time, how you lost out on a possible wonderful day if only you took your time. And, especially, you will remember how you made your family miss out, and feel even vexed with you.
Then, if ever you will go out and start rushing this experience will come to mind. You’ll be so annoyed with yourself. You’ll never repeat your mistake. You’ll slow down, take your time, smell the roses, and feel good about it too. Finally, every now and then this life lesson you learned will come to mind. Like it did for me now, here, while I type.
Sometimes it takes burning your hand to learn to be careful around a hot stove. And burning your hand may be the best teacher. Especially to any part of you that doesn’t feel comfortable taking it slow and just enjoying yourself, at a nice, leisurely, unrushed pace. And you will see, every time you rush, this will come to mind, and you will naturally slow yourself down, and finally be able to slowly enjoy yourself guilt free, forevermore!
Hope it helps!
Happy travels!
CARPE DIEM!!
Richie
Great goals Sam especially #10. Being a SF native myself I hope that you will be a huge voice for being a great example of someone reaching FIRE and living in HCOL area with San Francisco being one of those cities. We can’t all move out of a HCOL area and settle in a LCOL area that easily. Their are some factors for making that happen like establishing a career and family. Hopefully you will put out more posts this year that relate to people living in coastal cities.
Also like your milestones for your son!! I was going through the same thing my 2 year old as he was taking steps to reach to milestones. Right now, one of the most stressful ones for us is potty training. He’s turning 3 in a few months and we plan to take him to preschool this fall and of course he’s required to be potty trained by then. Unfortunately he’s reluctant to even use the toilet since he’s comfortable handling his business on the diaper. Hopefully we can get him to transition the early part of the year.
Thanks! Got it now!
Hi Sam,
Thanks for keeping delivering high-quality educational posts. Following your advice, I’ve started using Personal Capital, Fundrise, Wealthfront. Thanks a lot! I have a question regarding your post ‘Is 2019 still a good year to buy SF real estate area'(I cannot find place to comment under that post so I am posting it here) :
I work in SF and have some savings to pay for the down payment for a condo in mission bay. I plan to live in this condo for 3-5 years and rent it out to cover all the cost. As you mentioned, the cap rate at SF is pretty low so we probably should look at long-term appreciation. Right now the 1b1b condo at Mission Bay is already around $900k. I am wondering if they will still appreciate in the next few years to make a positive return, especially as you mentioned, there is a recession expected in 2020. Any insight from you is greatly appreciated!
San Francisco condo prices are weakening unfortunately. Check out the prices since the first Q of 2018. Move been going down. I would make sure you boost your cash hoard and deleverage.
I expect things to be weak for a couple years, even after all these IPOs. But prices won’t crash.
GL!
I have decided the problem with successful investing is it is too simple and we by nature must complicate it. We believe we do not deserve to be rich unless we work very hard. The market works hard. We don’t have to. I believe work hours and hours on research before buying. Buy 5 or 6 stocks, keep adding shares, reinvest dividends and then hang a sign on the door “gone fishing”. That’s it. When the bear market comes you don’t want to be around. There is nothing you can do. By fishing, you won’t do anything stupid – like sell
Last thought. None of the people who complicate investing and tell you what to do with YOUR money fish.
Hi Sam! I’ve been reading on real estate crowdfunding after seeing many financial bloggers recommend it. On the surface, everything looks nice according to most things I’ve read. However, I’m wondering how Fundrise and others compare to traditional non-traded REITs. These seem to boast the same advantages but the traditional ones are widely described as terrible because of their fees and illiquidity. I also particularly care about correlation with the stock market and can’t find anything useful on this. Curious if you invested in any eREITs Fundrise offer or do you only purchase specific properties? If so how did they perform in 2018 when the stock market went down? I’m not planning to invest more than a few grand in it but seeing you put $500K+ in it certainly makes me curious.
I like Fundrise a lot because they are so innovative and are available for all investors. I did a review of their eREITS here.
I invested in a real estate fund with RealtyShares b/c I didn’t have time to pick and choose. It was more an asset allocation for my alternative investment class. The fund has 17 different investments and I get one K-1, so that’s good. But RS closed its doors to new investors and are in the process of selling themselves.
Great article Sam! I’ve been following the blog for a few months now as I’ve been keen on starting my own finance blog, which I finally did after reading your post on Blogs and consistency. I’m a recent graduate from Harvard and currently work at a management consulting place at 22, you are one of my inspirations of where I want to be later in life. I was raised in a similar family where my dad was a SAHD for 18 years. My brother and I definitely appreciated him being there for so many of our milestones so just know that what you’re doing will make a big difference one day. Huge shoutout to all the SAHM out there too! Excited to start my blogging journey and hope to be as cool as the Financial Samurai one day!
Cool! Good to hear about the benefits of having a stay at home dad.
I’ve always wondered what strategy consultant actually do. You got to give me a hint one day! Good luck in the real world!
Great post!
Do you count your son’s 529 in your net worth calculations? With my three kids, I have a good amount of money hanging out there, and always waffle on if I should include it or not.
Great goals Sam especially #10. Being a SF native myself I hope that you will be a huge voice for being a great example of someone reaching FIRE and living in HCOL area with San Francisco being one of those cities. We can’t all move out of a HCOL area and settle in a LCOL area that easily. Their are some factors for making that happen like establishing a career and family. Hopefully you will put out more posts this year that relate to people living in coastal cities.
Also like your milestones for your son!! I was going through the same thing my 2 year old as he was taking steps to reach to milestones. Right now, one of the most stressful ones for us is potty training. He’s turning 3 in a few months and we plan to take him to preschool this fall and of course he’s required to be potty trained by then. Unfortunately he’s reluctant to even use the toilet since he’s comfortable handling his business on the diaper. Hopefully we can get him to transition the early part of the year.
Hi Sam,
I just heard you on the Biggerpockets podcast and was moved by the type of father you hope to be to your son. I am a pediatrician who also chose to stop working in order to be home with my children. I highly recommend the books, The Conscious Parent or The Awakened Family by Dr. Shefali Tsabary. She’s a clinical psychologist that brings a new and revolutionary perspective to parenting.
Thank you and hope it helps!
Thanks for the recommendations Jessica!
It’s been quite a journey as a FT dad, and I appreciate every moment. So difficult at times, but so worth it. Time is going quick and I just want up excited to be with him every day!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts through the years……been a fan and love that you are going to allow yourself to indulge a bit more.
Wishing you the best this 2019, Sam.
Hi Sam, always so great to read another post from you, especially getting a peek into your personal goals and life. I’m excited to see you spend more, too. If you ever need ideas, let us know! I could see y’all vacationing more. After seeing Gwen Paltrow’s Instagram over the New Year, I put Soneva Jani in the Maldives as a bucket list item. They have rooms of chocolate and ice cream that are open all day there. I’m not sure you need more than that.
I would like to hear your thoughts on nominal GDP targeting. I am a relative finance newbie, but it seems like a decent idea to me. The current Fed system seems arbitrary and not tied to actual market forces, as you noted with the inflation issue.
Happy New Year and best wishes.
Yeah, it looks like you have done amazingly well. Great jog! You definitely deserve to enjoy life and not get stressed out. I’m curious though, with how much income you are bringing in, why might want to go back to full-time work? Won’t you miss the freedom + flexibility? Or did I miss a post?
Thanks Chris.
Here’s the main reason after two years of FT parenthood: https://www.financialsamurai.com/thinking-about-taking-a-vacation-by-going-back-to-full-time-work/
“My goal is to convince big media to provide a more diverse perspective on financial independence since not everybody can or wants to move to a low cost area of the country.”
Once again, thanks for this. It’s extremely refreshing to see a perspective outside of the echo chamber of smug stoicism and/or what I would call “aggressive modesty” that often dominates the rest of the FIRE community. Their advice is fine for the average American who needs some financial sense knocked into them, but it can be quite stifling for high-achievers. Your writing actually provides a model for above-average people to aspire towards (especially people in their early 20s).
Hi Sam, really enjoy the blog. Although I signed on not too long ago, it’s been great reading what you and everybody else is doing, thinking, and planning. I think the first few days of 2019 is a glimpse of what the rest of the year holds for us as far as volitility. I am a simple trader of options (not day trader…) to enhance the portfolio so the more volatile the market is the better. Sell puts in steep declines and write calls on huge upswings. Seems to be working. Panic is now opportunity. Welcome to the new year.
How did you go about finding the best estate lawyer? What other professionals do you think are necessary as we think about not only our parents aging (husband and I are late 30s and we both have parents who aren’t as financially OTB in their 60s) but also making sure our ducks are in order for our progeny? Thanks! We both have financial backgrounds and MBAs so it’s more who did you use to write your medical/financial wills, did you set up any trusts, etc.
Wishing you a Prosperous New Year!
I enjoy your blog and style of writing more than other financial blogs. I like to read your thoughts on wealth building and the trials of living in such a high cost of living area.We don’t travel much due to cost so I’m not aware of lots of things that you mention.
As you have the joy of raising your son and get into the swing of private school costs and travelling with him, your mind will be working overtime on where money from tuition goes and how comes it rises by 30% every year? Plus you’ll gain the patience of a Saint when flying and dealing with rude passengers who do not have children. I’ll compare notes and see how you handled it.
We are not financially independent. But we have taken more risks and overcame more obstacles than our parents. While our incomes were only 20% of the cost of a home and our parents made 4x the cost of a home, we survived lots of downturns and difficult times. And we’re still here to tell the tales.
My main goal this year is to take a vacation to Hawaii. We are inviting my sister and niece to join us and it will be a week long of fun activities and fun. It will be very expensive but we have to do it while we are healthy enough. And EVERY year, I hope to do this. We work too hard and too many hours and due to our health issues, it’s time. I don’t know what will happen in 5 years. So, let’s spend it and enjoy it. And still pay the bills……
FS- I have been following you for a few years now and really enjoy your posts and growth as a new parent. I often smile as I reflect on your writing. After 14 years on the job I left to become a SAHD in Seattle for 18 months while I cared for my 2 and 6 year old daughters. We moved to Oahu 2.5 years ago and but kept our real estate assests in Seattle. Sounds like we have a few things in common. Let me know if you are ever on island, I would enjoy grabbing a coffee and comparing some notes about the journey.
Wonderful! How’s life there and what does your spouse do?
A HONOLULU get together would be great.
We really enjoy the slower island life and raising our two daughters in an outdoor all year, kid friendly environment. In general, I feel people here are happy and we enjoy higher quality of life. However, paradise does have its challenges at times. Housing and trips back to the mainland can be very expensive. Many parents send their kids to private schools which can add up over the years. My wife works remotely in IT for a mainland company and I work at one of the hospitals on the island. Salaries here are lower and the expenses are higher, this takes its toll over time. It feels hard at times to get ahead here. I look forward to talking shop with you one day in person.
Dan
You underestimate the power of your presence during early years. Your kid whines when he has to brush his teeth? Oh well. Play laugh and enjoy. My daughter’s first year was spent in a Russian orphanage. There were days I didn’t think she would ever speak or finish potty training. She is 16 and doing great. I retired 5 year ago– early. Consider staying home again when he is a tween. Thanks for your newsletter. 40 years ago I used to live n Lawton St.
Happy New Year!
I’m from another expensive coastal city (Melbourne) so really looking forward to more posts this year on investing in these types of cities.
Happy New Year!
Another stellar post Sam. Although I am a busy surgeon with 2 side hustles one of my real joys is a cup of coffee while reading your posts. I do not have the same problem with feeling guilty about spending or smelling the roses unfortunately. I think it is either in your DNA or not. There is certainly a balance that is different for everyone. I was deployed in the service for a time and the lives some people live outside the US makes me very appreciative of all I have.
Cheers!
Ah, your comment reminds me of this post when I went to Europe:
I’ve Seen The Future And It Looks So Bright
If I was a surgeon with two side hustles, I probably wouldn’t feel guilty during my down time either!
Europe would have been nicer than Mosul amd Talifar
:)
Quick quiz. Are you able to reallocate from stocks to safee heavens without paying any tax on it? If sell my stocks and put them on my 2% bank accounr, then i ha e to pay taxes on the stock earnings first.
Stock market stress is the worst!! Absolute worst case, I don’t need to touch my stock market money for 10 years, most likely never. Doesn’t make the pain any less. My wife is tired of my moods swings which correlates with the daily swings of the S&P.
It’s kinda funny, doesn’t matter if you have enough, or don’t, or have to much, the stress is real. I guess it’s all relative.
My prediction for 2019 is that the market will get back above 2800. Powell told us today that he has our backs and Trump is gonna need a win this year. The easiest way is an agreement with China. Either way I’m gonna continue to buy.
I understand why real estate is your favorite asset class( nice not to have a daily reminder of how much your losing) Mine will continue to be equites,(I love stocks) I just hope my wife can handle my mood if we drop another 20, 30 percent!
Best wishes, Bill
Hah, I hear you.
If we get back to 2,800, I am probably going to sell 80% of my stock holdings and buying a nice place to enjoy. Got to enjoy your wealth, not let your wealth give you stress!
Awesome and inspiring post. The one that resonates with me the most is #11 – Be more forgiving of myself. I am a perfectionist and often struggle getting started with something because I can’t imagine it not being RIGHT immediately. Very inspiring, and I look forward to following your progress.