When Fundrise's Innovation Fund (VCX) listed on the NYSE on March 19, 2026, its net asset value was $18.97 a share. Within days, retail investors momentarily bid the price above $400. That's more than 20X NAV, a premium so rich it made 1999 look responsible.
As a shareholder locked up until September 14, 2026, I've had a front row seat to the whole rollercoaster. I wrote about the psychology of that experience in my companion post: What It's Like To Be A Startup Employee With A 6-Month Lockup.
This post is about the math – calculating VCX's NAV estimate. Because regardless of what the share price does based on retail sentiment, the NAV provides the base case, fundamental scenario of what the shares are really worth.
Estimating a closed-end venture fund's NAV takes three basic steps. Let me show you how, so you can run the numbers yourself whenever a new funding round hits the headlines. I've tried to model VCX's NAV conservatively to minimize disappointment and hopefully surprise on the upside when the lockup ends.
Note: The first version of this post incorrectly assumed Anthropic was valued at $180 billion on Fundrise's books (its late 2025 valuation) when it made up 20.7% of VCX. In reality, Anthropic was marked closer to $350 billion (its February 2026 Series G) at the time of VCX's listing. I also purposefully waited four months after the listing to publish this analysis, to let the retail mania die down and take a more sober look at the numbers. Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai, and I am a multiple six-figure investor in Fundrise products. All views are my own.
VCX NAV Estimate Step 1: Calculate The Dilution-Adjusted Markup For Each Holding
When a company raises at a new valuation, you can't just divide the new post-money valuation by the old one. New money dilutes existing shareholders, including VCX.
Take Anthropic. At VCX's $19/share listing NAV, roughly 20.7% of the fund was in Anthropic at a ~$350 billion valuation (Feb 2026, Series G). Anthropic then raised $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation in May 2026 after listing. Subtract the new money and the pre-money valuation is $900 billion. So existing shares marked up 2.57X, not 2.76X. Still a spectacular result in a matter of months, but it's always good to try and be more precise when real money is at stake.
One piece of vocabulary before we continue, because it trips people up. A 2.57X markup means the position is now worth 2.57 times what it was. In other words, it GREW by 1.57X its original value. Keep that distinction in mind, because it's key to Step 2.
Run the same math across the top holdings:
- Anthropic: $350 billion to $900 billion pre-money = 2.57X markup (grew by 1.57X)
- OpenAI: ~$500 billion to $730 billion pre-money after raising $122 billion, with a targeted September IPO above $1 trillion = ~1.5X markup now, ~1.9X by lockup expiration (grew by ~0.9X)
- Anduril: $30.5 billion to $56 billion pre-money after its $5 billion Series H = 1.84X markup (grew by 0.84X)
- Databricks: $134 billion to $175 billion if the rumored round closes = 1.31X markup (grew by 0.31X)
- SpaceX: now public after its June IPO and marked to market daily = ~1.8X markup on the fund's prior carrying value (grew by ~0.8X)
Thankfully, we can easily input these publicly reported figures into AI to help us make the calculation. However, even still, you need to review the work.
VCX NAV Calculation Step 2: Multiply Each Growth Multiple By Its Portfolio Weight
A 2.57X markup on a 1% position is a rounding error. A 2.57X markup on a 20.7% position is significant. The formula is:
NAV growth contribution = portfolio weight X (markup multiple minus 1)
Why minus 1? Because the original position is already sitting inside the $19 starting NAV. You only add the growth, not the whole new value.
Anthropic's slice of the fund at listing was 20.7% of $19, or $3.93 per VCX share. After a 2.57X markup, that slice is worth $10.11. But the fund doesn't gain $10.11, because it already had the $3.93. The new value created is $10.11 minus $3.93, or $6.18 per share. And $6.18 divided by $19 equals 32.5%, which is exactly 20.7% X 1.57.
Multiply by 2.57 instead of 1.57 and you'd be counting the original stake twice.
Now run the top holdings through the formula:
- Anthropic: 20.7% X 1.57 = +32.5% to NAV all by itself
- OpenAI with a September IPO: 10% X 0.9 = +9%
- Anduril: 7% X 0.84 = +5.9%
- Databricks: 17.5% X 0.31 = +5.4%
- SpaceX: 5% X 0.8 = +4%
- Rest of the portfolio (Ramp, Canva, and others) at a modest 12% growth: +4.8%
Add up all six contributions and you get ~62% total NAV growth, which takes $19 to roughly $31. Anthropic's 32.5 points represent about 53% of that growth. In other words, of every dollar of new value VCX created since listing, roughly 53 cents came from one company. This should be both exciting and concerning.
Exciting, because VCX has effectively been a concentrated bet on Anthropic, and so far that bet has paid off spectacularly. Concerning, because if Anthropic stumbles, VCX's NAV growth will slow or even decline. Concentration cuts both ways.
The optimist's counter is that the rest of the portfolio has tremendous upside too, and it hasn't fully shown up in the marks yet. Anduril, for example, is seeing secondary market demand at almost double its latest funding round valuation. If even one or two more holdings go on an Anthropic-like run, today's garnish becomes tomorrow's main course.
Step 3: Stack The Contributions In Dollars Per Share
Start at $19 and add it all up.
The math points to a NAV of roughly $31/share right when the VCX lockup expires on September 14, 2026.
Here's how the estimate evolves across three time frames for 2026 alone. All NAV estimates are based on reported fundraising valuations and expected IPO pricing, not on secondary market activity or where shares might trade after listing.
Today (July 2026): ~$29/share. Anthropic's Series H closed in late May, so the markup should already be reflected in the fund's latest marks, along with SpaceX trading publicly.
Lockup expiration (September 14, 2026): ~$31/share. This assumes the Databricks round closes and OpenAI completes its targeted September IPO at around $1 trillion. Note: It's not clear whether shareholders can sell on September 14 or have to wait until September 15 at the earliest. But we’ll find out before then.
Year-end 2026: ~$33-$38/share, with $40 in play. Anthropic has filed confidentially to go public. If it prices anywhere near its last round with even a modest pop, that single position adds several more dollars of NAV because of its concentration.
Of course, the bear case exists too. If AI sentiment cracks before the marks get taken, if Databricks doesn't close, and if the IPO window slams shut, NAV sits closer to $27-$30. After living through the 2000 dot-com bust from a Wall Street trading desk, I refuse to model only sunshine. Then again, if the IPO window is closed, this makes VCX more valuable.
What If Anthropic Becomes A $2 Or $3 Trillion Company?
Now let's dream a little bigger, because I actually think Anthropic will be strong when it IPOs. The company crossed a $47 billion revenue run-rate earlier this year. In this market, I could see Anthropic becoming a $2 trillion company in 2027 and a $3 trillion company in 2028. Nvidia and Apple have shown the market has no problem paying up for dominant compounders.
Is that my base case? No. A $2 trillion valuation in 2027 implies roughly 40X the current revenue run-rate. But after watching Anthropic go from $350 billion to $965 billion in a matter of months, I've learned not to cap my imagination at what feels reasonable. Anthropic's revenue could grow to a $100 billion run rate in 2027, making a 20X revenue multiple more attractive.
Anthropic's slice of the fund at VCX listing was worth $3.93 per VCX share (20.7% of $19). That $3.93 is the seed that compounds:
- At $965 billion today: $3.93 X 2.57 = $10.11/share. Anthropic alone is now worth more than half of what the entire fund was worth at listing.
- At $2 trillion in 2027 (~5.5X after dilution): ~$22/share from Anthropic alone
- At $3 trillion in 2028 (~8.2X after dilution): ~$32/share from Anthropic alone
Layer in the rest of the portfolio continuing to compound, with OpenAI public, Databricks marked up, Anduril growing into the defense boom, and SpaceX trading, then subtract the ~1.85% annual management fee, and the estimates look like this:
- End of 2027: ~$40 to $49/share
- End of 2028: ~$52 to $68/share
From an $18.97 listing NAV, that would be a 3X+ in under three years. Without paying a single dollar of premium.
But notice what else happens. At $2 trillion, Anthropic is roughly 48% of the fund. At $3 trillion, about 54%, assuming no growth in the other holdings. Of course, that is unlikely. If Fundrise trims the position to rebalance, the NAV stays the same but the future torque drops. The other positions should continue to grow too.
Meanwhile, there is also a scenario in which Anthropic grows to be worth far more than $3 trillion before 2028, given its massive total addressable market (TAM). And why not? Google’s market capitalization is currently around $4.5 trillion, and AI is already cannibalizing Google’s core search advertising business.
The Premium Is The Risk, Less So The Portfolio
Here's the final dose of humility every VCX shareholder needs. The NAV rising over 60% and the share price falling more than 80% from its peak are both true at the same time.
VCX is a closed-end fund. There's no creation-and-redemption mechanism tethering the price to NAV. Retail investors who paid 20X NAV weren't buying a portfolio. They were buying a lottery ticket on scarcity, since VCX was one of the only ways the public could own Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX in a single public ticker.
That scarcity is now on a countdown clock. SpaceX is already public. OpenAI is targeting 4Q2026 to IPO. Anthropic has filed and may list at the end of 2026, or 2027. Every IPO gives investors a way to buy each company directly, so the premium should naturally erode over time, unless VCX continues to invest in the next promising private AI company, which it very well could.
The key word is “over time,” because the sequencing matters enormously. The longer VCX's holdings stay private, the longer the scarcity premium survives. This is why the Databricks CEO publicly guiding toward a 2027 IPO instead of 2026 is welcome news for shareholders. Databricks is the fund's second largest holding, and every year it stays private is another year VCX remains one of the only tickets to the show.
Anthropic is the fascinating wildcard. If it IPOs after the September 14 lockup expires, I suspect the premium should continue given owning shares in Anthropic is desirable but hard to do. An Anthropic debut at ~$1 trillion could get quickly bid up toward $2 trillion given the demand and fundamental growth. That would send VCX's NAV upward and reignite enthusiasm for the fund at the exact moment shareholders can finally sell.
So when the lockup releases its wave of new supply, the bigger question won't be what the NAV is. It will be what premium of NAV the market is still willing to pay, and how quickly the IPO calendar dismantles the scarcity that premium is built on.
My math says the NAV keeps climbing. It says nothing about the premium.
Modeling In Mania Is Difficult
Never in my wildest dreams did I think VCX would go up 3X, 5X, 10X, 20X post listing, given I focus on fundamentals. Further, as a FIRE investor without a steady paycheck, I cannot afford to be too wrong. But retail enthusiasm is a variable investors must now consider. We saw it with meme stock mania in 2021, and the Reddit army has only grown since. There is precedent.
Since VCX's listing in March 2026, hyper AI enthusiasm has cooled, as seen in the share prices of hyperscalers such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft. Microsoft faces more of a long-term structural question, given the fear among software investors that AI will make traditional software irrelevant. As a long-term investor, I view releasing steam as a GOOD thing for sustainability.
The biggest catalyst that could reignite VCX mania is Anthropic going public AFTER VCX's lockup expires. Sitting here in San Francisco, I'm 90% certain the hype for an Anthropic IPO will be out of control. I got a great glimpse of AI IPO mania during the Spring 2026 San Francisco house selling season where prices rocketed 20% YoY as buyers came off the fence to buy before such liquidity events. It may end up the most in-demand IPO in history. In that scenario, demand for VCX should surge along with it.
And there is precedent for how high VCX can fly. It hit $380 in March (higher intraday) and over $250 in May. Meanwhile, Anthropic will likely be more valuable in October 2026 and beyond than it was in the spring, thanks to continued growth. Same retail intensity plus a bigger underlying asset means mania could conceivably bid VCX even higher than before.
Estimating What Could Happen With Anthropic IPO and VCX NAV
I assign a 65% chance the Anthropic IPO comes after the VCX lockup. If it does, I put the odds of retail mania returning at 70%. If Anthropic lists before the lockup, I assign only a 15% chance of mania, dependent mostly on how well Anthropic trades post listing.
In the no-mania scenarios, I expect VCX to simply trade around its estimated NAV, plus or minus 15%. Blend it all together and I get roughly a 46% chance of another mania-driven premium. A coin flip on fireworks, with a rising NAV as the consolation prize. I'll take those odds.
Update: The Blue Sky Scenario: A $5 Trillion Anthropic
Coincidentally, the afternoon after publishing this post on July 15, 2026, Bloomberg and CNBC reported that Anthropic's bankers at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are scheduling investor meetings over the coming weeks, with an IPO possible as soon as October. If that timeline holds, Anthropic goes public AFTER the VCX lockup expires in mid-September. That's the exact sequencing I assigned a 65% probability to earlier, and it just got more likely.
A few sections ago, I called a $2 trillion Anthropic by 2027 a stretch and $3 trillion by 2028 a dream. But between the confidential filing, the banker meetings, secondary markets already implying a $1.2 trillion valuation, and Google sitting at $4.5 trillion while AI eats its search business, I keep asking myself the same question: what if my dream scenario is somebody else's base case?
So here's the blue sky version, where everything goes right at once. Anthropic IPOs in October, trades toward $2 trillion by year-end on frenzied demand, then compounds to $3 trillion in 2027 and $5 trillion by 2028 as revenue races past a $150 billion run rate. OpenAI IPOs in 2027 and climbs to $3 trillion by 2028. Anduril raises at $75 billion, IPOs at $150 billion, and hits $250 billion on the defense boom. Databricks closes its round, IPOs around $300 billion, and reaches $450 billion. SpaceX recovers and grinds toward $3 trillion.
You already know from the previous section that a $3 trillion Anthropic is worth ~$32 per VCX share. In the blue sky, that milestone simply arrives a year early. The new number is the big one: at $5 trillion in 2028, Anthropic contributes ~$54/share all by itself, nearly triple what the entire fund was worth at listing.
Stack the more aggressive growth from everything else on top, subtract fees, and the blue sky NAV progression looks like this:
Roughly $42 by year-end 2026, $65 by year-end 2027, and $98 by year-end 2028. A 5X from the listing NAV in under three years, with the NAV knocking on $100 before paying a dollar of premium. And if retail mania returns on top of a rising NAV, well, anything can happen.
Now for the cold shower. A $5 trillion Anthropic in 2028 would make it the most valuable company on earth, and even a $150 billion revenue run rate would imply a 33X sales multiple. I'd assign this scenario maybe a 15% probability. Then again, companies such as Google, Apple, and Nvidia could easily become more valuable over the next three years too, raising the ceiling for everyone.
Blue sky scenarios are the reason why you hold on to at least a portion of a winning position instead of selling everything the moment your lockup ends. You can't capture an outcome you never let yourself own. Anything can happen.
A Potential Ideal Scenario
Given my shares are locked up anyway, my ideal setup is perverse: VCX dips below my ~$31 conservative estimated NAV (~$40 realistic best case), I accumulate more, and THEN the market learns for sure the Anthropic IPO is coming in October or later after lockup, reigniting mania and boosting the price to $100+. Buy the fundamentals, get the frenzy for free.
The other X factor is the potential upside from every VCX holding outside of Anthropic, OpenAI, Anduril, and Databricks. One or two of these companies could grow much faster than expected, just as Anthropic came from behind to surpass OpenAI. At one point, Databricks was VCX’s largest holding at roughly 20%, while Anthropic had only about a 5% weighting.
It's fascinating to game out upside scenarios with a plan. But whatever happens, I'm happy if VCX simply trades around its estimated NAV. The NAV has grown substantially since listing, and I believe it will keep growing for the foreseeable future. Mania is a bonus. The portfolio is the investment.
Disclaimer and Reader Questions
Before making any investment, please do your own due diligence and only invest what you can afford to lose. Nothing here is specific investment advice for you. This is simply how I'm thinking about my own shares, and our circumstances, financial goals, and time frames are different. My calculations will not be exact and will change as time goes up.
Do you own VCX, and if so, did you buy pre-listing at NAV or post-listing at a premium? What does your own NAV math say, and where do you think the premium settles after the September lockup expiration?
Invest At NAV, Not At A Premium
I just spent an entire section building probability trees to model retail mania. You know what requires zero probability trees? Buying at NAV.
If this post taught you anything, it's that entry price determines everything. Investors who bought VCX at its ~$19 NAV pre-listing or lower are sitting on a potential double based on fundamentals alone. Investors who paid a 10X premium or greater are hurting despite owning the exact same portfolio. Same Anthropic, same OpenAI, wildly different outcomes. The only variable was the price they paid to get in.
Fundrise has reportedly filed to launch VCX 2, though the timing and final structure remain uncertain. If a sequel launches, the window that matters is the pre-listing one, where you buy at NAV like the first VCX's biggest winners did. Existing Fundrise investors will be notified first, and you can open an account here to get on the list. Free to sign up, and it beats setting a price alert and praying.
In the meantime, every fund on Fundrise's platform, from private real estate to private credit, transacts at NAV. No premium to overpay, no lockup-expiration supply waves, no mania variable to handicap. The entire second half of this post, all the premium modeling and probability trees, simply doesn't apply. You get the fundamentals without the frenzy. Same three-step logic, applied to buildings and credit instead of AI unicorns.
Disclosure: Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai, and I am an investor in Fundrise funds, including the Innovation Fund (VCX). All NAV figures in this post are my own estimates based on publicly reported funding rounds, not Fundrise's official marks. This is not investment advice.
Everyone is talking about NAV and the premium in the short term. What is VCX end game after a lot of these companies they hold go public like Space X, Anthropic, Databricks, Anduril, & even Ramp. Does VCX just keep holding these now public companies? Do they sell some holdings in the companies that whet public and invest in new private companies? If they hold all the companies that go public long term and they keep growing at a fast-paced NAV would naturally go up over time as they keep growing. Is an investment in VCX like investing in Apple, Amazon in the beginning and in 20 years, if you never sold, your investment is now generational money.
It would be interesting to know VCX strategy when it comes to this, of all my reading on
VCX I have never heard their long-term strategy in regard to hold or sell as
the companies in the VCX portfolio go public.
I could see VCX as short-term play, or as a long-term play if they plan to hold Space X, Anthropic, Anduril, etc.
Hi Sam, many thanks for the excellent analysis. I have a meaningful investment in VCX pre-listing at NAV and agree with your estimate. To keep a level head, I always focused on the market price being driven by a tiny float and not fundamentals. In my view, the only valuation that really matters is the NAV. Everything else is just the market putting a premium on a very limited supply of shares. My main concern with this fund is that my investment is held in an IRA. Unlike a regular brokerage account, I don’t have the flexibility to sell immediately on lockup 9/14. As explained by Computershare, there will be a 2-3 day lag for processing time of IRA shares to be sold which limits my ability to execute for some profit taking at lockup expiration. This of course would affect anyone invested through an IRA. Are you invested through your IRA or regular brokerage??
Hi Sam, super insightful as always! I appreciate the tools you’ve giving us to make more informed decisions. FWIW, when I replicated your analysis of NAV growth relative to the $18.97 value established in the Innovation Fund annual report dated 3/31/26, it prompted a few questions that perhaps other readers would benefit from:
The estimated Anthropic markup of 2.57 is relative to the $350B pre-money Series G valuation. I understand why the pre-money value of $900B is used for the current Series H valuation, but shouldn’t the post-money valuation of $380B be used from the prior round when determining the markup?
The percent NAV values cited are slightly different from those stated in the annual report linked above. Perhaps you’re using a more recent source, but that would stray from the $18.97 NAV value. For instance, you’re reporting Anthropic at 20.7% of NAV, but the annual report carries it at 16.5%.
Based on the asset summary published on Fundrise for OpenAI dated 2/27/26 with a post-money valuation of $840B, I’m led to believe that the $18.97 NAV as of 3/31/26 may already reflect an OpenAI pre-money valuation higher than the $500B starting point.
This is a silly question perhaps but is there a possibility that the SPV nature of how VCX owns shares could be challenged by companies like Anthropic? I read somewhere that the Anthropic CEO was warning that some companies’ SPV vehicles may not be honored at the time of IPO.
Not a silly question at all and probably the most important question actually. We’ll know for sure how the Anthropic holdings are structured when the S-1 filing drops in roughly the Sept timeline. It’s a little concerning that Fundrise hasn’t already given details on whether they own Anthropic via SPV versus a direct cap-table stake. If/when we learn they have a direct cap-table stake then all the modeling in this post is fair game and I’m super excited for what the outcome might be while psychologically anchoring myself to NAV. If this is owned through SPV and Anthropic disavows VCX’s SPV claim similar to the DXYZ precedent with OpenAI, then that might throw water on our mania lotto tickets.
Doubtful. But anything can happen. The knockoff effects of companies challenging legitimate SPVs will likely do immense damage to the companies themselves, as no investor, public or private would be able to trust them anymore.
And once you lose trust, it’s a slippery slope down.
Thanks Sam, I did something similar with Claude and got a similar number. What do you plan to do? I added a bunch in January and it will be a short term gain, so I’m hoping to hold for 1-2 yrs at least. Adding if it gets down to NAV.
Thank you so much for this excellent analysis. Super helpful.
Sam all I know is I read your weekly posts. I am not a Sophisticated stock investor, I buy index funds and real estate as well. Because of reading your posts I bought some VCX and then I received an email where I could buy more and in all honesty I didn’t even know what I was doing but I bought I think 5K Worth if I recall there was a max of 10k and then I saw VCX went public and I called compushare and asked them what was the share price and they said $505 but I could only sell up to $20,000 worth so I did. That was a win. Pure luck on that one. Thanks Sam
Thank you for sharing your NAV estimate Sam. As a pre-IPO investor in VCX as well, I watched the market effects of the SpaceX IPO closely. In the case of SPCX, we saw retail and institutional investors liquidate their positions in other equities in preparation of the SPCX IPO. Looking at VCX price around the IPO, it appears that VCX may have been sold off by retail investors in exchange for purchasing the portfolio company SPCX directly. Could you share more on why you believe the Anthropic IPO is more likely to have the opposite effect that SPCX had? And if you have a different view of the reason for VCX’s selloff around SPCX IPO?
Apple and Nvidia make lots of money. I find it hard to see how Anthropic etc are going to make extraordinary profits. They don’t seem to have a moat with people willing to switch models all the time or use ones that are not quite at the frontier.
Many years ago when I was learning about value, I was exposed to many different types of values. There are equity value, market value, fair value, carry value, and intrinsic value. When I first invested in Fundrise Innovation Fund, I was looking for diversification and long term gain – not on speculation or a quick flip. With this mindset and looking at the underlying assets (i.e., Open AI, Anduril, Databricks, Loyal, Vanta) I see these companies as the future leaders in AI, defense, data, drugs, compliance and other industries. I see these companies with having very high intrinsic value. The NAV does not justify the values of the underlying assets. Pre-IPO valuation has Discount for Lack of Marketability (DLOM) and valuation lag which discount the true values of the underlying assets. The real question to serious long term investors, who have money in VCX, is not what the market value is this year but what true value these underlying companies can bring in the long term. Good things usually happen to the ones who have patience.
WSJ reports: Coatue is leading a $3 billion @databricks round at a $188 billion valuation.
Databricks is Fundrise’s second largest holding.
I can definitely see VCX above $80 at least if Anthropic goes public after lockup.
It into easy to forecast Anthropic’s grow over just 1-2 years, meaning VCX’s NAV as well.
It’s the herd mentality talking. Right now, VCX is down and out from its highs. But the frenzy will return once Anthropic is a go in October +.
I’m buying VCX now and lower if it goes lower. Feeling blessed for the opportunity!
Let’s see what the future holds. I do think the herd mentality comes back. The key is taking a risk before the herd arrives.
Thoughts on the Salesforce acquisition of Fin? Did that move the needle much for VCX?
Definitely a win. But a small win that doesn’t move the needle much given its small weighting in the NAV. However, it’s proof that Fundrise can make good investments with a profitable exit.
Armchair-ing over here but why does Anthropic deserve a premium over the other guys when they don’t own any underlying infrastructure? No chips, no datacenters…just weights and models.
Wouldn’t an Anthropic IPO before the VCX lockup ends be better for VCX’s price in the immediate term as there would be 1/5 the float with the same demand? I’m thinking if Anthropic IPOs in mid to late September it’s a Goldilocks scenario for VCX, buying into a very low volume name could easily 2-5x from its low and an impending IPO may pump the brakes on newly unlocked holders selling.
Maybe. Anything is possible.
If VCX goes up in price in your scenario, how do you sell if the shares are still locked up? And if post lockup, Anthropic is publicly traded, would you not expect the premium to NAV to decline since shareholders can buy Anthropic shares directly?
“an impending IPO may pump the brakes on newly unlocked holders selling.” would argue for Anthropic IPOing after lockup.
I’d love for you to elaborate your thought process as I’m sure I’m missing something. Thanks!
Always with the Socratic questioning
Always trying to learn from others and uncover blind spots. If you would like to share some of your VCX NAV analysis, I’m all ears.
I’m not sure why more people don’t do this type of work given real money is at stake. Why do you think that is?
With Bloomberg now reporting a potential Anthropic IPO as early as October, I think there’s a good chance. VCX will get bit up again from current levels. All the ingredients are in place for a significant rebound.
Timing wise, it is great. Even better if Anthropic goes IPO in Fall 2027 instead and continues to grow. But I’ll take post lockup IPOx
If a large number of shareholders bail after lockup won’t that cause a significant drop in the stock price? The price is already tranding down.
I sold my unrestricted shares at $151 which now appears to have been a great decision.
It should. But it also depends on where the price is the day of lockup. If the price is below or at NAV, I wouldn’t expect there to be much selling pressure, but if the price does trade at a steep discount to NAV, then I will look at that as a opportunity to buy based on my model.
I’m sure there are going to be some wild swings, not based on fundamentals on the upside and downside again. So it’s up to everyone to build their own models and come up with a game plan for Wen to buy and sell and how much.
I think there are a couple issues you didn’t factor in. Remember a key thesis for listing VCX was because they had nearly a third of the NAV in cash to support redemptions. That is no longer needed in a closed end fund, but it will reduce how much the growth of the companies will grow the nav if $4-5 of the $19 initial NAV was cash.
In addition, if Fundrise issues new shares at a premium it will be accretive to the NAV which could be relevant once they finish selling down the flagship shares in VCX.
Thanks for adding these variables to consider. How do you model out the NAV in the future?
Thank for the great analysis and effort to understand valuation for this really unique hybrid situation (private + public). Very tough to understand valuation now that companies in its portfolio starting to go public. The attraction of the fund, to me, is as a vehicle to invest in private companies. I kinda wish they were required to liquidate a holding within a certain period of time after coming public. As you say, if you love anthropic and spacex, wouldn’t you but them individually?
Once their three or four biggest holdings go public, then what? I guess it will just compete against other “market segment” funds. I am guessing Vangaurd, Fidelity, blackrock, etc will all have AI funds with a basket of AI companies – may already have them.
To me the reason to buy the stock is perhaps confidence that they will get into the next next next big thing. But how do you value that longterm?
Yes, you would logically buy the holdings individually once they go public if you believe in the companies. However, it all depends on the price. It will likely be extremely difficult to get allocation in Anthropic stock at IPO. And there are other variables such as the IPO timing and the valuation of the company at IPO.
I wasn’t a fan of SpaceX at its IPO price, which is why I passed. But even if I indicated, I wouldn’t have been given a large absolute dollar amount of allocation.
There are so many variables to consider, and even more variables we don’t really know about it. But given the weighting of Anthropic in VCX, that is the biggest variable we must analyze, and hope for upside with the rest.
My lockup ends on Sept 14. Is Fundrise staggering the lockup expiration dates?
Not that I’m aware of. I just added 6 months to the March 19 listing date. Where does it show you Sept 14 lockup expiration, as I’ll update accordingly. Thanks
The name of the shares at computershare state Sep 14
I see it now. Curious date. We should check with Computershare whether we can actually sell on Sept 14 or after.
Thanks for taking something so incredibly complicated and explaining it in a way people like me can understand. This type of stuff usually goes way over my head!
You raise important points about paying attention to the future listings of some of VCX’s big holdings. Lots of variables to take into consideration. And that’s fascinating they filed for launching a second VCX. I’m excited to see how things unfold. Thanks again for all of your thorough analysis!
This is a great analysis. Thank you. I work in venture Capital and I can tell you that retail investors are significantly underestimating Anthropic’s growth potential. Demand to invest in Anthropic and anything that owns Anthropic will be off the charts once they officially decide to proceed with their IPO.
The risk reward looks attractive for VCX at this level.
If what I observed in the Spring 2026 San Francisco housing market is any indication, the Anthropic IPO is going to be one for the ages.
Why? Housing -> AI? RTO related? Feel like I missed a page
San Francisco home prices by one estimate is up about 22% year-over-year as buyers jump off the sidelines to try to buy property before these companies IPO and flood the market with even more liquidity beyond the secondary shares.
The amount of demand I witnessed the spring was off the charts. And for reference, I track dozens of properties at any given moment and I’m always going to open houses on Sunday for the past 25 years in SF.
The SF real estate demand is a leading indicator for AI LLM IPO demand and growth.
Here are some relevant posts:
https://www.financialsamurai.com/from-doom-loop-to-boom-loop-a-san-francisco-story/
https://www.financialsamurai.com/real-estate-is-the-easiest-and-safest-way-to-profit-from-ai/
https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-rise-of-arrogant-listing-agents-in-a-hot-real-estate-market/
Hey Sam, you might want to take a look at the Anthropic valuation. I think Fundrise carried it it at $350B not $180B on their 3/31/26 reporting. I’m getting something closer to like $30 in current NAV based on the uplift when you price it in that way. I’m getting it from the N-CSR they filed showing the valuation of their last lot (Feb 26 purchased at ~$380B) being marked at 0.96x value.
I’ll double check, but I think you are right as ~$350B was the last round. Time to revise some estimates after pickleball this morning! Thanks.
Absolutely fantastic write-up and way to think about it. NAV was always the focus, premium is a bonus.
One interesting insight I was watching at the Liquidity Event (All-in Podcast), is that Centicorns ($100B) have a 31% chance of achieving 10X ($1T).
It makes me think that some of the smaller names, like Databricks ($134B) , Anduril ($61B), & even Ramp ($44B) may surprise to the upside.
Agree. Databricks is raising supposedly at a $175B valuation now and secondary market share for Anduril is at over $100B.
I do think it’s healthy that a lot of the steam has left the AI bubble with the correction of tgr hyper scalers such as Google, Amazon, and Meta. But these stocks are now rebounding again. So we shall see!
I just want to thank you for giving us the opportunity to go along on this ride with you. I never would have even known about the Innovation fund without you writing about it. I put $50,000 into it just for fun and its been the most interesting investment I have made in a long time. Lets all hope Anthropic IPO’s after our lockup is over.